The drawn Test in Brisbane has left the race to next year’s World Test Championship final wide open with Australia marginally ahead of India at the second and third spots, respectively.

South Africa are out in front of the standings and in the box seat to feature in the one-off Test in June 2025 at Lord’s.

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Having entered the Gabba Test at second spot, Australia retained their place on the WTC standings with a 58.89 points percentage and just in front of India in third with 55.88 percent. As such, the remaining two Tests of the Border-Gavaskar series will be crucial for both India and Australia to keep themselves in the fray.

With eight Tests to go in the current WTC cycle, four teams are still in contention (and one more has a very outside chance), and no team is assured of a place in the top two.

As such, India will need to win both their remaining matches — Boxing Day Test in Melbourne and the New Year’s Test in Sydney, to ensure qualification, regardless of other results, for a third successive WTC final. Two wins will take Rohit Sharma’s men to 60.53, while Australia will only end up on 57.02 even if they beat Sri Lanka 2-0 in their last series. On the other hand, if India win one Test and draw the other, they’ll finish on 57.02, and can be overtaken by Australia (58.77) if they win 2-0 in Sri Lanka.

In the scenario of India levelling the Border-Gavaskar series 2-2, Rohit’s team will finish on 55.26, which means Australia will need to lose to Sri Lanka by at least a 1-0 margin, or South Africa lose 2-0 to Pakistan. And if India lose the series 1-2, they will finish on 51.75 and will be out of the final as Australia and South Africa will finish higher even if they lose all their remaining Tests; also, Sri Lanka will finish on 53.85 if they beat Australia 2-0.

Australia need two wins and a draw to be sure of qualification, but that’s if they manage only a draw in their two remaining Tests against India – in that case, they’ll need full points against Sri Lanka so that they finish on 58.77, ahead of India (57.02); else they will need South Africa to lose at least 1-0 to Pakistan.

South Africa will need to win one of the two upcoming Tests against Pakistan to be assured of qualification for the final. If they lose the series 1-0 and manage only four points to finish on 55.56, then Australia and India can both go past that mark.

If South Africa lose both Tests to Pakistan, they’ll drop to 52.78. At least one of India or Australia will surely go past that mark in their remaining matches, but if India get only four points from their last two Tests and Sri Lanka don’t sweep the home series, then Australia and South Africa could still qualify. On the other hand, if India win and draw their two Tests, and Sri Lanka win 1-0, then India and South Africa will qualify.

Fourth-placed Sri Lanka’s chances of reaching the WTC final will bank on their performance against Australia and also hope for other results to swing their way. The Islanders can reach a maximum of 53.85 with a 2-0 series win against Australia.

For each of Australia, India and South Africa to stay under that mark, Australia should get no more than a win and a draw in the two Tests against India, who should in turn get no more than a draw, while South Africa need to lose 2-0 to Pakistan. Sri Lanka can qualify in second place as long as only one of those three teams goes past 53.85.